The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) remains optimistic that this year's national coal production target can be achieved, despite a decline in export value and volume.The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources projects that coal production in 2025 will exceed 700 million tons."(We project production until the end of the year to be) 700 (million) something," said the Director General of Minerals and Coal (Minerba) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Tri Winarno, when met by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Thursday (7/8/2025).Meanwhile, according to minerba One Data Indonesia (MODI) data as of August 7, 2025, national coal production has reached 430.77 million tons, or 58.25% of the national target of 739.56 million tons.However, the export sector continues to face pressure. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that coal exports reached USD 11.97 billion in the first half of 2025, down 21.09% year- on-year (YoY).A decline also occurred in terms of volume, namely by 6.33% YoY to 184.19 million tons, with an average export price of USD 64.99 per ton or a drop of 15.86% YoY.This decline had actually been predicted, according to Hendra Sinadia, Executive Director of the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA). Indonesia's coal production and exports in 2025 were initially projected to be lower than in 2024.Currently, global coal is experiencing an oversupply, particularly from China, India, and Mongolia. According to Hendra, this situation will continue until 2026."In general, the global thermal coal market is experiencing oversupply. This has been the case since 2024 and is expected to continue until 2026," he told Kontan on Sunday (August 3, 2025)."China and India themselves recorded record-high production in 2024," he added.In Kontan's records, Hendra also stated that it would not be easy to shift coal export destinations now because major importers were actually increasing their coal production."The largest thermal coal markets currently remain China, India, and East and Southeast Asian countries," he said.Meanwhile, according to the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (apbi), Indonesia's coal export target for this year is 500 million tons. This target is lower than the 555 million tons achieved for the whole of 2024."This year's export target is 500 million tons, or 67.6% of production. As of June 2025, we have exported around 238.64 million tons, or 47.7% of this year's export target," said Acting Executive Director of apbi, Gita Mahirani.Gita also previously stated that the majority of Indonesian coal exports to the main market, China, almost 60% is coal with a calorific value of 3000-4200 GAR, or the low-calorie category.On the other hand, the Indonesian Mining Experts Association (Perhapi) revealed a shift in demand from importers, with China currently preferring to import high-calorie coal."Chinese buyers are shifting their purchases from low-calorie coal to high-calorie coal, not the other way around. This is because with falling coal prices, they will profit from the lower-priced high-calorie coal," Perhapi Chairman Sudirman Widhy told Kontan some time ago.
Source https://djakarta-miningclub.com